Tag Archives: ideas

About a future that already happened

Posted on June 11, 2012 | 9 Comments

You know how they say that the future cannot be known? They are wrong. Well, partially wrong. Because there are aspects of the future that can and should be known to us: that is the future that has already happened.

An elegant proof of this idea was offered to me by Hans Rosling, during a chat we had in Doha, this past April. The chat referred to his latest TED talk, and specifically to his claim that we should prepare for a peak population of at least 10 billion (watch the video footage between 10:20 and 12:20).

It is not easy to imagine Herr Rosling losing his temper, but I think I got him pretty close to that state, later in the evening, when I referred to his statement as a hypothesis to be tested. He did not wish to continue the conversation until I acknowledged that his claim was not a hypothesis, but a statement of fact. He offered a neat illustration of a dynamic that confuses many of us who wish to better understand the world. When things happen, some of the consequences take a long time to manifest, but they are inevitable.  Much of what will become visible only years from now, has already happened.

What did I take away from my chat with Hans Rosling? A question and an insight. The question: what other important aspects of our future have already happened? The insight: when it comes to the knowable future, to see forward, once must glance back.

Please share with me ideas about other aspects of the future that you think may have already happened.

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Posted in Philosophy, System of Thought

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Where do good ideas go when they go away?

Posted on December 27, 2011 | Leave a comment

In entrepreneurial ecosystems, I am intrigued by a type of waste that rarely gets noticed. It is not visible because it relates to that which could have been.

Simply put, when entrepreneurs fail, they create waste.

 

A business idea can be conceived as a bundle of key assumptions about economic realities. A startup often fails because it is based on one or more faulty assumptions – but not necessarily. Valid assumptions do not guarantee success. Failure can often be a matter of execution, of insufficient capabilities, of incomplete market understanding, or simply a function of circumstances outside the control of the entrepreneur.

So, what happens to the valid assumptions of a business model that failed? Where do good ideas go when they go away?

In Dubai, I am not aware of any structured effort to formally retrieve and recycle the valuable intellectual capital created by unsuccessful enterprises. Nor am I familiar with any initiative to methodically identify the causes of failure and to articulate lessons intended to prevent similar mistakes in other enterprises.

Not capturing the wisdom of the unsuccessful is more than an oversight – it is a massive waste.

Cain & Co’s innovation incubator was conceived to reduce such waste by dispelling the stigma associated with failure, by making visible the value generated in failed attempts, and by reducing the cost of failure in Dubai – so entrepreneurs can fail more often. The last point will require a lot of help from regulators and key stakeholders in the city’s economic development.

Cain Innovation Credo – Fail early. Fail often.

 

Note – These words are not original. A google search has just revealed identical quotes from IDEO and The Economist, dating a mere few months ago. I greatly admire both organizations – yet, it would have been quite nice to be able to lay claim to what I thought was my own catchy original expression. Apparently, good ideas that are also successful have a tendency to be recycled effortlessly. Long live appropriation.

 

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Posted in Entrepreneurship, Philosophy

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Ideas are worthless

Posted on December 26, 2011 | Leave a comment

“Ideas are worthless… “ I hear investors say quite often at events intended to promote entrepreneurship in the Middle East. And there is merit in their perspective, but the perspective itself is somewhat incomplete.

If you agree that innovation is “fresh thinking that creates value”, I suggest that innovating is a process that requires at least three stages.

One is the stage where a bit of divergent thinking results in fresh ideas. Some are good, some are bad, but they all need resources if they are to be executed.

Two is the stage where a good idea gets executed. It will take a certain amount of time, money, and a few complementary capabilities that rarely reside in one person alone.

Finally, and most importantly, the result of an executed idea needs to be validated by its users. The result may be no less than a masterpiece, yet worthless, if nobody (or too few) value it as such.

So, getting back to the investors, I wish they would not stop at that discouraging statement. I wish they would say:

“Ideas are worthless… until they are executed, and the result is adopted by sufficient users”

Then, the focus of the conversation would be more constructive, with questions on how to conduct rigorous research and experiments to test key assumptions about the market, on how to attract the capabilities needed to execute with minimum resources, or how to attract early adopters for a pilot service or a product prototype.

But hey, if more entrepreneurs went through a rigorous pre-financing process and did that well, investors would not be able to negotiate equity stakes that exceed 50%, as there seems to be too often the case [in Dubai].

And here is a post along the same lines, focused on Silicon Valley, and much better written than mine.

 

 Note – I do not own the rights to the image in this blog. If you are the author and you wish me to take it down, please let me know.

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Posted in Entrepreneurship

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